Where will the Winnipeg Jets find goals while Kyle Connor is out injured?

April 21, 2024

When Kyle Connor was injured in a knee-on-knee collision against Anaheim, the Jets struck back with four third-period goals and a 4-2 win. The two games they’ve played since then — a 2-1 loss in San Jose and a 5-2 win in Los Angeles — give insight into a crucial, obvious question.

With Connor out of the lineup for six to eight weeks, who is going to score Winnipeg’s goals?

The answer in Los Angeles on Wednesday was Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi. The trio took a strong game in Anaheim and added two rocket wrist shots from Ehlers, a Sidney Crosby-esque backhand from Vilardi and two goals from a hustling Scheifele to power five unanswered goals on the way to the Jets’ win. Ehlers has long been an underrated, secondary seeming option to Connor as a goal scorer. Injuries have held him back. Ice time has limited his end-of-season point totals. But when he’s on, there are few in the league who can fly like he does.

“This is the best he’s played because he’s healthy — he’s 100 percent healthy,” Jets head coach Rick Bowness told reporters in Los Angeles. “When he’s skating like that, he’s elite. It’s elite speed, skills. Obviously hockey IQ. You love to watch him play. Tonight, that line made the difference. It’s a good fit with Gabe on the right side and Mark’s hockey IQ is above the charts as well. And when you get Nik skating like that, he’s tough to defend, man.”

Connor is synonymous with Jets offence. He leads the team in goals, points, power-play points, individual expected goals and individual goals scored above expected. He’s also scored the sixth most goals in the NHL since 2017-18, while his attacking mindset brings an ineffable, unquantifiable feeling to every shift — the idea that, whether he’s had a great game or a poor one, Connor can break the game open with the puck on his stick.

This idea comes from Connor’s accomplishments in full flight. It’s in Connor taking the puck on the left wing, dancing outside in past Alexandre Carrier, waiting, holding and then burying the perfect backhand past an outstretched Juuse Saros. It’s Connor taking Ehlers’ pass in the slot on his backhand, spinning and sniping past Alexandar Georgiev in Colorado. It’s in the way he moves through quiet ice, sneaking behind New Jersey’s defensive coverage in Winnipeg, taking Josh Morrissey’s pass in the corner and burying his own rebound past Akira Schmid.

These are the goals Connor scores that Winnipeg cannot replace. But the new top line was phenomenal on Wednesday, offering more than a little hope the Jets will survive his absence just as they pushed forward without Vilardi when he was hurt.

The timeline for Connor’s recovery confirmed by Sara Orlesky on Wednesday roughly coincides with the NHL’s All-Star break. Connor will miss 21 games if he’s back for the Jets’ first game following the break — on Feb. 6 in Pittsburgh. He was on pace for 54 goals this season and, if he maintained that pace, he would score approximately 14 goals in those 21 games.

So what will Winnipeg do? What should Winnipeg do? And what’s got the top line on such a heater?

Vilardi, Ehlers and the potential for greatness

Vilardi’s return to good health (and good form) from a knee injury of his own couldn’t come at a better time. Vilardi scored 23 goals in 63 games one year ago in less than 15 minutes of ice time per game. He’s dominant with Scheifele and Ehlers on the Jets’ top line now, averaging more than 20 minutes per game, and scored the game-winning goal on Sunday — his first in a Jets uniform.

The backhand goal he scored against his former team in Los Angeles was highlight-reel stuff:

Have yourself a game, Gabriel Vilardi! 🚨

He's got his first career four-point game (1G, 3A) against his former team, the Los Angeles Kings.

This tally gave the #NHLJets a 4-2 lead. pic.twitter.com/9Cv6EdSr6m

— Winnipeg Sports Talk (@SportsTalkWPG) December 14, 2023

“I’m learning a lot about how good these guys are,” Vilardi said on Wednesday. “It’s fun for me, being a hockey guy, to watch and learn and try and pick their brains.”

Vilardi is a big, highly skilled forward whose four-point night introduces him to the NHL as a top-end player. To project his impact with Ehlers and Scheifele, we need to better understand Vilardi’s style of play.

There are three things Vilardi does particularly well in the offensive zone. First off, Vilardi protects the puck with his 6-foot-3 frame. He reads the ice well, keeping his head up at all times so he can make good decisions with the puck. (Seriously, watch his eyes for a full shift. Even by NHL standards, Vilardi is a heads-up player.) Vilardi’s third major skill is a fast, deceptive release — on the backhand, too, as it turns out.

But it’s Vilardi’s ability to read the ice that is most important, by far.

“I’d describe myself as a shooter and a passer,” Vilardi told The Athletic this summer. “I try to do a bit of everything well and just make good reads. I’m not someone that’s going to flash with speed — I’m more of a puck protection player who can slow the game down.”

The “and” in Vilardi’s first sentence is important. His biggest strength is his ability to read the ice and make the right choice: shoot when it’s time to shoot, pass when it’s time to pass. He’s made a career of adapting to his linemates and playing to their strengths, just as he did with two assists for Ehlers on Wednesday night. He’s not going to excel in transition — unless he has Ehlers with him — but Vilardi is going to protect the puck with his head up until it’s time to strike.

Scheifele has told me before that this aspect of Vilardi’s game makes him stand out as an appealing linemate with great vision.

If Scheifele and Ehlers can find soft ice when Vilardi has the puck on his stick, they can become first-touch shooting threats to go with their playmaking ability. This was already true, to some extent — Scheifele found Ehlers in soft ice for a beautiful goal against Carolina last week and Ehlers has found Scheifele posting up in the slot for shot attempts of his own. Ehlers shot the lights out against Los Angeles after missing a few good chances against San Jose on Tuesday.

Vilardi with the sweet setup and Ehlers with a laser. The #NHLJets are on the board. #GoJetsGo pic.twitter.com/EXVZgf0XHW

— Spinorama 🔄 Hockey (@spinohockey) December 14, 2023

Connor is a good passer, too. The difference is that more of these shooting opportunities will follow sustained possession — as on Vilardi’s goal — as opposed to pure transition, as on much of Connor’s offence or Ehlers’ two snipes.

What does it all mean?

As long as Winnipeg’s new-look top line keeps firing the puck on net — the trio outshot San Jose 9-2 and the Kings 11-4 at five-on-five this week — they’re a good bet to generate goals at even strength. Scheifele is having a great season, Vilardi is equally adept at protecting the puck or finding soft ice to shoot and Ehlers has come to life since being promoted to the top line.

Ehlers point pace:

On top line: 98 point pace, all primary points
On third line: 39 point pace, 61% primary points

Usage matters

— Garret Hohl (@GarretHohl) December 11, 2023

The biggest drop-off is going to happen further down the lineup.

Perfetti’s breakout season and what comes next

Adam Lowry’s checking line with Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton gives the Jets coverage behind Scheifele’s line, allowing Winnipeg to build a secondary scoring line to take advantage of softer competition.

Cole Perfetti and Vladislav Namestnikov are two-thirds of that secondary scoring line; Winnipeg has outscored its opponents 14-5 with Perfetti and Namestnikov on the ice. The scale of this advantage, when combined with strong underlying metrics, has given Winnipeg an advantage in any given game. (Some might call it an underutilized advantage, given Perfetti averages the 16th most five-on-five ice time per game on the Jets.)

Connor’s injury creates a bigger challenge on this line than his own: Most of Perfetti/Namestnikov’s outright dominance has been accomplished with Ehlers on their wing. Whereas Ehlers can help Scheifele and Vilardi create magic on the top line, the absence of Ehlers leaves Perfetti and Namestnikov trying to achieve the same quality of play with Alex Iafallo promoted to their line. Iafallo is a smart, hardworking player but hasn’t scored since Nov. 2; the quality in finishing drops off in a big way with Connor hurt and Ehlers on the top line.

The good news? Perfetti is playing the best hockey of his career, his chemistry with Namestnikov is real and Iafallo is a committed 200-foot player. Perfetti has a good stick in his own zone, he makes smart plays to ensure exits at the Jets blue line and entries at the other end of the rink, and the NHL game is slowing down for him.

It might get lost given what the top line has accomplished but Perfetti is in the midst of a breakout season, with 19 points in 28 games despite minimal ice time. He’s making quick decisions and finding pockets of space in the offensive zone that bode well for his future; if he can keep scoring without Ehlers on his line, he’ll help soften the blow of Connor’s long-term injury — and then help the Jets excel once Connor returns.

A power play that needs to deliver

With Connor unavailable, Winnipeg has moved Ehlers to his spot on the right flank on the top power-play unit. Perfetti is playing the bumper position to the goalie’s left, Vilardi is in front, Scheifele runs the unit through the left wing boards and Morrissey is at the top.

They’ve created a tremendous amount of shot volume in the smallest of samples without scoring any goals — a concern magnified by Connor’s absence.

The interesting thing about analyzing the Jets’ top unit through its numbers is that Connor’s 5.41 points per 60 minutes of power-play time, though team leading, is not an elite rate of scoring compared to the rest of the NHL. Winnipeg’s 23rd-ranked power play had issues prior to Connor’s injury and will need to work through those issues without him.

Over the course of the full season, Winnipeg has taken the second-fewest shot attempts per minute of five-on-four time. They’ve gotten the third-fewest shots on goal. They’ve managed the eighth-fewest goals per minute of five-on-four time: unacceptable on a team this good whether Connor is in the lineup or not.

Granting that San Jose’s penalty kill is among the league’s worst, it should be noted that the Jets’ new power play generated shot attempts at an elite rate in their goal-less effort on Tuesday night. They missed the net too many times and had a few shots blocked but, despite being a major reason Winnipeg lost, the Jets’ power play got a completely respectable eight shots on target in 8:44 of five-on-four time.

To take a glass-half-full approach, it seems possible that Ehlers and Perfetti, who don’t always get top unit power-play time, or Vilardi, who has just returned to health, offer more creativity when they try to make plays without deferring to Connor’s shooting talent.

Either way, early returns aren’t as bad as the goal-lessness. Consider the minute-long sequence in the second period of the Sharks game wherein Ehlers gained the zone at will, Scheifele set up Morrissey for a one-timer off the crossbar, Ehlers recovered the puck, Winnipeg eventually worked it down low to Perfetti who drove the net from the bumper position, Winnipeg recovered, Ehlers put a one-timer off Mackenzie Blackwood’s glove, Winnipeg recovered and Ehlers eventually threaded the puck through to Sharks defenders for Vilardi in the slot. Winnipeg didn’t score on any of those plays but the sting of scoring zero goals, combined with giving up the game winner on the Sharks’ power play, left a disproportionately sour taste in fans’ mouths.

The Jets went 0-for-2 against Los Angeles, too, though, so the slump lives on.

Bottom line? Winnipeg’s power play needs to score. I think Connor’s injury leaves the Jets with just enough talent to make a dangerous top unit, and I expect Scheifele to quarterback it well.

What of Lowry’s role in all of this?

If Winnipeg is to absorb Connor’s absence, it needs more secondary scoring — from Vilardi, Perfetti, Ehlers, Namestnikov and more — along with an improved power play. And that’s assuming no one else’s scoring takes a big hit. Meanwhile, Winnipeg’s checking line of Lowry, Niederreiter and Appleton is coming back down to Earth after one of the most dominant runs of play in Jets recent history.

The trio maintains 49.8 percent of shot attempts and 50.3 percent of expected goals, according to Natural Stat Trick, along with an 11-6 lead in goals that count. But Lowry, Niederreiter and Appleton haven’t all been on the ice for a Jets goal since Nov. 26 against Nashville, while their underlying numbers have dropped from great to merely average.

In the grand scheme of things, it’s OK if Winnipeg’s checking line saws off other teams’ top lines. The dip in offence and flow of play is concerning, though. Niederreiter, Appleton and Lowry are fifth, seventh and eighth, respectively, in Jets scoring so far this season. They’re an enormous part of Winnipeg’s early success — at both ends of the rink. They need to continue producing offence alongside their defensive excellence to keep Winnipeg strong while Connor is away. To me, that’s a tough ask: There’s a cost to playing the hard-nosed, aggressive game Lowry’s line is known for. If they’re slipping, Winnipeg could struggle: Ehlers, Vilardi and Scheifele are capable of greatness but five goals a game is a little much to ask.

Winnipeg survived Vilardi’s injury and is only realizing how great he can be on its top line. The Jets fully understand what they’re losing in Connor’s goal scoring and, while an offensive step back seems inevitable, Winnipeg is better insulated against this injury than it’s been at any point in recent memory.

(Photo of Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers and Mark Scheifele: Andre Ringuette / NHLI via Getty Images)

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